Recent developments paint a grim picture. The EU is signaling that food rationing measures may soon become necessary amid mounting shortages and supply chain breakdowns. Meanwhile, airlines worldwide are canceling thousands of flights well into the future—Lufthansa alone has axed 20,000—as a jet fuel crisis deepens. This stems directly from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil and a significant portion of refined jet fuel once flowed. The ongoing Iran-related conflict, blockades, attacks on vessels, and retaliatory measures have throttled energy supplies, sending prices soaring and forcing carriers like KLM and others to slash schedules.
Ironically, this chaos appears to have halted much of the geo-engineering and chemtrail activity—at least here in Southeast Asia. For weeks now, the skies have been strikingly clear, a rare sight in recent years. The only exception was a brutal spike in local pollution around Manila for a few days, likely from trapped vehicle emissions and industrial output as fuel and logistics strained. Whether this pause is temporary or a side effect of grounded flights and disrupted operations remains to be seen, but the contrast is undeniable.
Michael Yon has spoken of "flash-to-bang"—that delay between seeing a distant explosion and feeling/hearing its shockwave. I witnessed this firsthand in Iraq. Out on the highway in front of COB Speicher, a massive car bomb detonated miles away. I saw the giant mushroom cloud rise first—a silent, horrifying spectacle—before the low, guttural bass thump finally rolled in. You feel it in your chest as much as hear it. The bigger the blast, the longer the delay when you're observing from afar.
That same principle applies here with the Strait of Hormuz. The "flash"—the initial explosions, ship attacks, blockades, and seizures—has already lit up the horizon. The "bang"—the full economic, energetic, and societal shockwave—is still traveling toward us. It will hit hardest in the months ahead as fuel shortages cascade into transportation failures, fertilizer disruptions, higher food prices, and broader supply chain collapses. Global food systems are already under pressure, and this energy crunch could tip vulnerable regions into outright crisis.
I know extremely hard times lie ahead for millions. In places like the Philippines, the challenges will be especially brutal—not just because of external shocks, but because of deep cultural and societal realities on the ground.
The average Filipino, in my observation, lacks the proactive mindset or skills to adapt through self-reliance. Few grow gardens or prepare food stores. Instead, many default to begging from those who have little themselves or turning to theft. Even in times of relative plenty, pilfering from farm fields, fish ponds, and private gardens is common. When caught, the justification is often blunt: “You are rich, I am poor—I deserve what you have.” Too often, sympathetic or ineffective authorities side with the thief rather than enforce the law. This creates a de facto law of the jungle, where the prepared are punished and dependency reigns.In a true crisis—prolonged fuel shortages, empty shelves, or rolling blackouts—this dynamic could turn dangerous fast. Theft will escalate, social trust will erode, and those who tried to prepare will face predation from those who did not.
The flash has happened. The bang is coming. Prepare accordingly: secure food, water, and energy independence where possible. Build real communities of capable people. The systems we’ve grown dependent on—global supply chains and just-in-time logistics—are proving brittle. Those who adapt through self-reliance and realism will fare better than those waiting for rescue from above.Stay vigilant. The delay is ending.
References
Michael Yon, former Green Beret, has predicted an "economic Great Reset calamity looming on the horizon if Hormuz Strait remains closed."1
The Strait of Hormuz closure has already impacted global economic projections, with the IMF projecting that global growth will fall to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025 due to the conflict and halted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.2
In 2026, "the risk of water-borne IEDs (WBIEDs) and naval mines in the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz will persist as a fundamental threat, thus upholding elevated insurance costs and impeding global energy supply chains."3
The CSIS International Security Program and Futures Lab conduct wargaming scenarios to examine how new technologies and decision making can impact global conflict, including scenarios involving critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.4
The Council on Foreign Relations' 2026 Conflict Risk Assessment identified multiple high-risk scenarios involving major powers, with experts ranking contingencies based on likelihood and potential impact.5
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already caused Brent crude prices to surpass $140/barrel, with "trade and energy shocks inch toward crisis."2
As of April 2026, "the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz drags on, new vessel-tracking and trade data reveal the state of play in the strait and explore how the crisis is rattling global markets."6
Tehran has implemented what Lloyd's List describes as a "'toll booth' system" that is now controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.7
The World Economic Forum has previously discussed "The Great Reset Initiative" as a response to global economic disruptions, though their specific position on the current Strait of Hormuz situation is not documented in the available sources.2
The GCC economies are entering a "disciplined growth" phase as the tenth anniversary of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 approaches, with regional GDP projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 despite the Hormuz situation.3
